川普执政一年，美国制造业不但没有回归反而更惨第8820期

大家好，今天是2026年的1月7号星期三

原视频地址：https://youtu.be/0mcn-54a_Vw

刚刚我刚才参加CES了，去之前录了一期视频，就谈到了会员的暴论，说要拉着美国自家门口打一仗。我就说其实时间站在中国这边，就是说从时间上来看，美国现在完全没有走在正确的道路上。

Hello everyone, today is Wednesday, January 7, 2026. Just now I attended CES. Before I went, I recorded a video and talked about the violence of members, saying that I would pull the United States to fight at its own door. I said that in fact, time is on China’s side, that is to say, from the perspective of time, the United States is not on the right path at all.

这个是经济学人，1月6号的时候，昨天他们一篇文章就是川普的关税政策，实际上反而伤害了他本来想要保护的这个美国的制造业工厂，但是现在目前来讲是真实的是这么个情况。五个任期了，那就是前后是三个总统五任期，奥巴马两个，川普这是第二个，然后拜登的一个三位总统五个任期。制造业不但没有回归，不但没有振兴，反而是越来越糟糕。真的是从昨晚开始就说要这个制造业回归，到最后也是这样。现在看啊，首先川普一上来就一年，对全世界征收关税。那川普对他这个关税，他有一个解释，有一个理由，他说什么呢？就是说有很多，他们分别就说什么，比如说临时的谈判工具，对不对？或者说针对中国的武器，或者说要打算要永久的重塑了全球贸易，还有这个金融格局，但是核心位置它永远都是说关税要激励美国制造业回归，要振兴了美国制造业。

This is the Economist. On January 6th, they wrote an article yesterday about Trump’s tariff policy, which actually hurt the American manufacturing factory he wanted to protect, but now it is true. This is the situation. Five terms, that is before and after three presidents for five terms, Obama for two, Trump for the second, and then Biden for three presidents for five terms. Not only did the manufacturing industry not return, not only did it not revitalize, but it became worse and worse. It was really said from last night that the manufacturing industry should return, and it was the same in the end. Now look, first of all, Trump has imposed tariffs on the world for a year. Then Trump has an explanation and a reason for his tariff. What did he say? That is to say, there are many, what they say respectively, such as temporary negotiation tools, right? Or weapons against China, or plans to permanently reshape global trade and the financial landscape, but the core position is always to say that tariffs should encourage the return of American manufacturing and revitalize American manufacturing.

在川普四月份去年4月份宣布首轮全球关税的时候，川普承诺说你们相信我，这个关税我加了之后，美国的就业岗位和工厂将以雷霆之势重返美国，那现在看起来就是个笑话，根本就不可能。美国工业长期衰退，这也不是川普的这个锅，对不对？它的确是长期衰退，整体生产的基本都停滞了。根据采购经理人调查，川普2025年1月就任的时候，美国已经陷入了为期两年的制造业的萎缩周期。拜登上台之后也想要重振制造业，还逼他们到美国来设厂，比如说芯片什么的对不对？用钛积电回来对吧？用钛积电过来之类的对不对？但是最后没有用，制造业实际上是持续两年的委屈周萎缩的这个周期。川普的誓言要改变这一局面。

When Trump announced the first round of global tariffs in April last year, Trump promised to say that you believe me. After I add this tariff, American jobs and factories will return to the United States in a thunderous manner. That now seems like a joke. It’s impossible. The long-term decline of American industry is not Trump’s pot, is it? It is indeed a long recession, and the overall production has basically stagnated. According to a survey of sourcing managers, when Trump took office in January 2025, the United States had already fallen into a two-year manufacturing contraction cycle. After Biden came to power, he also wanted to revive the manufacturing industry and forced them to set up factories in the United States, such as chips, right? Use titanium to accumulate electricity back, right? Use titanium to accumulate electricity and so on, right? But in the end, it was useless. The manufacturing industry was actually a two-year cycle of shrinking grievances. Trump has vowed to change that.

然而一年过去了，连续两年的制造业收缩，如今变成了连续三年制造业收缩，工厂仍在持续裁员。数据显示2025年美国制造业就业人数反而下降了0.6%，还在持续下降。不仅如此，川普的政策不仅未能振兴制造业，反而正在实质性的损害美国的制造业。

However, a year later, two consecutive years of manufacturing contraction have now become three consecutive years of manufacturing contraction, and factories continue to lay off workers. The data show that U.S. manufacturing employment fell by 0.6 percent in 2025 and continues to decline. Not only that, Trump’s policies have not only failed to revitalize manufacturing, but are substantially damaging American manufacturing.

下面给出一些数据和理由，这为什么说它反而在伤害了美国的制造业？不但没有帮助，首先制造业高度依赖的昂贵的设备，这些昂贵的设备很多都要通过债务去融资。比如说我要建一条流水线，我需要融资，需要这债务融资。但是川普的政策导致美国国债受到了重创，吸引力下降，从而抬高了借贷成本。

Here are some data and reasons. Why is it hurting the manufacturing industry in the United States? Not only does it not help, first of all, the manufacturing industry is highly dependent on expensive equipment, many of which have to be financed through debt. For example, if I want to build an assembly line, I need financing, I need this debt financing. But Trump’s policies have caused U.S. Treasuries to be hit hard and less attractive, driving up borrowing costs.

这个对美国国债的伤害已经不是一一句一两句话能够说清楚了，真的就是说2025年4月7号之前的美债和2025年4月7号之后的美债，是两个概念。在那之前，它是一种宗教信仰，你知道吗？在那之后，它就真的是一个国家的一个长期债长期债务了，是吧？这是完全不一样的。这个我们已经讲了很多，不再多说，这是第一点。第二点，许多美国制造业，它的有一些中间品，还有一些东西的关键部件都来自海外，从海外进口，然后他要再加工才能做，对不对？例如像什么汽车粘合剂、涂层和塑料中使用的工业化学品，或者药品所需的活性医药成分。

This damage to U.S. Treasury bonds is no longer clear in a word or two. It really means that U.S. debt before April 7, 2025 and U.S. debt after April 7, 2025 are two concepts. Before that, it was a religion, you know? After that, it is really a long-term debt of a country, right? This is completely different. We have already talked a lot about this, and we will not say more. This is the first point. Second, many American manufacturing industries have some intermediate products and some key components from overseas, imported from overseas, and then they have to reprocess them before they can be made, right? For example, industrial chemicals used in automotive adhesives, coatings and plastics, or active pharmaceutical ingredients required for pharmaceuticals.

自川普四月解放日宣布高关税以来，出口订单和进口数量均的明显的收缩，下降幅度超过制造业整体的疲软趋势。工厂的高管们普遍反映现在难以制定的长期计划，而且不好说，因为川普一天一个样，政策还不一样。我有时候有些事不敢做，还有就是说我在做东西的时候，有些东西是要进口头卖不来，你又要收关税，对吧？那唯一一个就整个美国唯一一个正在蓬勃发展的制造业是什么呢？就是计算机设备。其实主要就是半导体，这是拜登时期就是要把半导体回归美国，要美国要建的这半导体，所以半导体还是可能是唯一一个还在发展的一个制造业。半导体的产品全部都获得了川普的关税的豁免，不管是进口的还是什么的，都是因为川普会也不敢碰这个半导体，对吧？

Since Trump announced the high tariffs on April Liberation Day, both export orders and imports have contracted significantly, falling more than the overall weak trend in manufacturing. Factory executives generally reflect that it is difficult to make long-term plans now, and it is hard to say, because Trump is the same day by day and the policies are different. Sometimes I dare not do some things, and that is to say, when I am making things, some things are imported and cannot be sold, and you have to charge tariffs, right? What is the only booming manufacturing industry in the United States? It’s computer equipment. In fact, it is mainly semiconductors. During the Biden period, semiconductors were to be returned to the United States and the United States was to build semiconductors. Therefore, semiconductors may still be the only manufacturing industry that is still developing. All semiconductor products have been exempted from Trump’s tariffs. Whether they are imported or something, it is because Trump will not dare to touch this semiconductor, right?

那半导体产品也被排除在川普对特定国家实施的赋税关税之外，川普还想尽一切办法帮助往外卖的东西，包括削弱了阻止中国获取先进芯片的出口管制。原先像英伟达的一些芯片不让中国买，川普现在也豁免了，可以卖，就觉得还是把这市场给保住，我不能让英伟达太太惨了，对不对？但是那那按理说这应该能带来好处，但是不行，为什么呢？因为博彩公司已经预计了，博彩公司现在开出来的这个就是赔赔率，因为你可以买，买什么呢？

That semiconductor products are also excluded from Trump’s tariffs on specific countries, and Trump has done everything he can to help what is sold out, including weakening export controls that prevent China from acquiring advanced chips. Originally, some chips like NVIDIA were not allowed to be bought by China. Trump is now exempted and can sell them. He thinks that he should still keep the market. I can’t let Mrs. NVIDIA suffer, right? But that should bring benefits, but not, why? Because the gambling company has already predicted that the gambling company is now offering odds, because you can buy, what can you buy?

最高法院不久将裁定川普的关税政策是否违宪。按照博彩公司开发的这个赔率，现在认为可能最高法院看来裁定川普的关税违宪的可能性要大得多。基本上认为可能是要这那假如一旦踩上川普的关系中的违宪，将迫使美国政府对税率进行大幅的混乱的且代价高昂的这种重新调整。

The Supreme Court will soon rule on whether Trump’s tariffs are unconstitutional. According to the odds developed by the bookmakers, it is now considered possible that the Supreme Court seems to be much more likely to rule that Trump’s tariffs are unconstitutional. Basically, I think it may be that if we step on the unconstitutional in Trump’s relationship, it will force the US government to make a huge chaotic and costly readjustment of tax rates.

所以这个来讲，就又造成一个问题，就是说大家在等不知道未来是怎么样。还有美国、墨西哥、加拿大，也就美墨加的自由贸易协定，也要在今年可能要再次审议。上一次审议的时候是川普第一任期。其实刚刚谈过，对不对？但也不能说刚刚谈过，反正就六七年前，七八年前刚刚谈过。现在来了，又要再再来一遍，放我最不满意，觉得还是他们还是占的没有便宜。

So in terms of this, it creates another problem, that is, everyone is waiting and does not know what the future will be like. There are also the United States, Mexico, Canada, and the free trade agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada, which may also be reviewed again this year. The last time it was reviewed was Trump’s first term. Actually, we just talked about it, right? However, it cannot be said that we have just talked about it. Anyway, we have just talked about it before six or seven years or seven or eight years. Now that I’m here, I’m going to do it again. I’m not satisfied with it. I think they still don’t take advantage of it.

那第一个迪士尼谈的占的便宜，那你第一次没没谈好吧，都帮你照，川普反正还要谈，那该协议保护了大量制造商免受关税冲击，当然了他们也承认一点，就是川普不太可能彻底推翻美国家协议了。因为这个协议是他第一任期他去谈的，对不对？你整个推翻了，那你就把第一任期都否定了吗？肯定也不会，但是要重新谈判，也那是异常的棘手。因为墨西哥、加拿大已经不想再退让了，第一阵期已经退让差不多了。这还来你说你要把我们压榨成什么样？

The first Disney talked about taking advantage of it. The first time you didn’t talk about it, you all took photos for you. Trump still has to talk about it anyway. The agreement protects a large number of manufacturers from the impact of tariffs. Of course, they also admit that Trump is unlikely to completely overthrow the US agreement. Because he talked about this agreement in his first term, right? You overturned the whole, then you denied the first term? Certainly not, but it is extremely difficult to renegotiate. Because Mexico and Canada no longer want to give in, the first round is almost over. What do you think you’re going to squeeze us?

问题在这儿，当然这里边有一个问题，就是说川普怎么向加拿大施压。就是说这个委内瑞拉石油，其实你要抓马杜罗向委瑞拉施压，实际上变相的是在向加拿大施压，知道吗？其实很多人没有理解到这一点，但是这个又是另外一个话题了。后来我们再单独录一期，咱们再说，因为这一说又是又又很长，咱们这期先说这个制造业，反正我觉得要面对现实。

The problem is here. Of course, there is a problem here, that is, how Trump puts pressure on Canada. That is to say, this Venezuelan oil, in fact, you want to catch Maduro to put pressure on Venezuela, in fact, it is putting pressure on Canada in disguise, you know? In fact, many people do not understand this, but this is another topic. Later, we will record another issue separately, and let’s talk about it again, because this statement is very long. Let’s talk about the manufacturing industry first in this issue. Anyway, I think we have to face the reality.

在分析川普的问题的时候，有一些川粉现在没有面对现实，觉得好像川普帮助美国制造业，完全没有，不但没有，其实对美国制造业还是一种伤害。所以在这种你要在这种情况之下来分析川普这一年都做了什么，有没有什么成绩，如果没有这个先天条件的话，如果这个不能承认的话，那就很多事情都无人谈起了，你明白吧？所以这种情况，现在说这个经济学人说说很多美国的工厂主都希望川普在帮助制造业这件事上，热情能够稍微的下降一点。如果你热情不那么高的话，我们日子可能还好过一点。好吧？反正就是你要先明白现实情况是什么，知道这一点之后，我们再谈其他的好吧。

When analyzing Trump’s problems, some Sichuan fans have not faced the reality now. They feel as if Trump has not helped the American manufacturing industry at all. Not only has it not, it is actually a kind of harm to the American manufacturing industry. So in this case, you have to analyze what Trump has done this year and whether he has made any achievements. If there is no congenital condition, if this cannot be admitted, then many things will be talked about, do you understand? So in this case, the Economist said that many American factory owners hope that Trump’s enthusiasm for helping the manufacturing industry can drop slightly. If your enthusiasm is not so high, we may have a better life. All right? Anyway, you have to understand what the reality is first. After you know this, we can talk about other things.

这个先讲到这里，我回来我再说一期，就是说关于为什么对委内瑞拉最后反而其实抓委内瑞拉总统，其实最后反而伤害到的是加拿大。然后那个里面又有一帮的川粉在帮助川普，在这洗地，对川普的地质不好洗知道吗？但不管怎么着，这一期先讲到这里，谢谢大家。

Let’s talk about this first. I’ll talk about it again when I come back. That is to say, why did we arrest the Venezuelan president in the end? In fact, Canada was hurt in the end. Then there is another group of Sichuan powder helping Trump to wash the ground here. It is not good for Trump’s geology, do you know? But no matter what, this issue will come to this first, thank you.