宋鸿兵：海南资源限制很多，短期内难以超越新加坡第8826期

原视频地址：https://youtu.be/jX6Fqv7hod8

大家好，今天是2026年的1月11号星期日

看看孙宏斌，孙宏斌来解读海南自贸区的封关。但是孙宏斌的观点基本认为海员他海南的资源限制非常多，短期内想要超越新加坡是异想天开，能不能搞成的其实都持怀疑态度。因为海南其实八九十年代就已经开始给政策了。其实中央给政策，给到了差不多30年的时间，结果没发展起来，还有他的这个，现实问题。但是当然了，孙宏斌也承认一点，就是说这次给的政策跟以前所有的政策都不一样。就这次给海南的政策，只好全中国没有见过这样的政策，这是前无古人，不知道是不是后无来者的政策。
Hello everyone, today is Sunday, January 11, 2026. Look at Sun Hongbin and Sun Hongbin to interpret the closure of Hainan Free Trade Zone. However, Sun Hongbin’s view basically believes that seafarers in Hainan have a lot of resource constraints. It is whimsical to surpass Singapore in the short term. In fact, they are skeptical about whether they can make it. Because Hainan has actually started to give policies since 80 or 90 years ago. In fact, the central government has given policies for almost 30 years, but the results have not developed. There are also practical problems. But of course, Sun Hongbin also admitted that the policy given this time is different from all previous policies. As for the policy given to Hainan this time, the whole of China has never seen such a policy. This is unprecedented. I don’t know if it is a policy of no newcomer.

好，我们现在来看看，首先中央发展的方向是什么？首先来讲就是它这个海南风光，免税的商品都不是制成品，全部是中间件。就是说一些半成品中间的这些，那这些中间件在海南组装加工之后，只要增值超过30%，进入内地就免关税。如果在海南把生产机器设备或者中间件转移给另外一个市场主体，就在里边进行一些中间件的这种交流，互相买卖的话，也不交关税。所以什么意思呢？通过这种方式知道干什么叫发展的加工业，把海南的整个加工业的这个生态的建立起来，产生了一个产业集群效应。就是说你们都去哪儿做了这个加工，然后你们互相之间的倒东西也不收税，这样就让你们在这整个建一个产业链起来，完成产业链。
OK, let’s take a look now. First of all, what is the development direction of the central government? First of all, it is the scenery of Hainan. Duty-free goods are not manufactured goods, they are all middleware. That is to say, for some semi-finished products, after these middleware are assembled and processed in Hainan, as long as the value added exceeds 30%, they will be duty-free when entering the mainland. If the production machinery and equipment or middleware are transferred to another market entity in Hainan, some middleware exchanges will be carried out inside, and no customs duties will be paid if they buy and sell each other. So what does that mean? In this way, we know what is called the development of the processing industry, and establish the ecology of the entire processing industry in Hainan, resulting in an industrial cluster effect. That is to say, where did you all do this processing, and then you don’t charge taxes on the things you pour between each other, so that you can build an industrial chain in this whole and complete the industrial chain.

那么在海南建立的企业，可以在海南设立多功能的自由的贸易账户，这也是好处。在金融方面给政策，那这个账户的功能已经接近香港离岸账户了。在国际上自由调动外汇，不受到任何的额度限制。没有，所以就没有了所谓的5万美元的那种限制，可以自由使用外币。还有企业和个人所得税都是双十五，上限就是最多的15%。不管是企业还是个人，在海南都是这样子，就是说收入所得上缴税率的上限就百分之，最多交15%。
Then enterprises established in Hainan can set up multi-functional free trade accounts in Hainan, which is also beneficial. In terms of financial policy, the function of this account is close to that of Hong Kong offshore account. The free movement of Foreign Exchange at the international level is not subject to any quota restrictions. No, so there is no so-called $50000 restriction and foreign currency can be used freely. There are also enterprises and personal income tax are double 15, the upper limit is the maximum of 15%. Whether it is an enterprise or an individual, this is the case in Hainan, that is to say, the upper limit of the tax rate on income is 15% at most.

那内地是累进的税率越来越高，到一定程度中其实还挺高的这税率。所以所有规范和国际制度和国际的规范的接轨，中央希望海南成为国内和国际双循环的交汇一个交汇点，海南这个政策真的就是说前无古人的，反正基本上是超级优惠。国内就没见过这么好的政策。上海、北京、天津自贸区其实很多，但是没有一个自贸区能够有海南这样子的这种优惠程度。
The progressive tax rate in the mainland is getting higher and higher. To a certain extent, the tax rate is actually quite high. Therefore, all norms are in line with international systems and international norms. The central government hopes that Hainan will become a meeting point for domestic and international double cycles. Hainan’s policy is really unprecedented. Anyway, it is basically super preferential. I have never seen such a good policy in China. In fact, there are many free trade zones in Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin, but none of them can have such preferential treatment as Hainan.

所以海但是也承认一点，就海南曾经已经给过三波政策，就是第三波。前面两波都没有成功，前两次由于种种原因，全部都失败了。那80年代就给了海南很多政策，当时80年代第一波时候，大家到海南一看什么也搞不了，就开始吵。那海南的地皮，因为国家给政策了，炒地皮，你像我们天津也有人过去炒地皮，那也不行了。
Therefore, Hainan has already given three waves of policies, that is, the third wave. The first two waves did not succeed, and the first two failed for various reasons. In the 1980 s, Hainan was given a lot of policies. At that time, in the first wave of the 1980 s, when everyone went to Hainan to see that nothing could be done, they began to quarrel. The land in Hainan, because the state has given a policy to stir-fry land, you like some people in Tianjin who used to stir-fry land, that won’t work either.

90年代又给了很多发展汽车工业的机会，大家去干什么呢？走私汽车，倒腾车，但是都没有真正踏下心来要搞制造业。所以这一次给的政策这种导向性非常强。你在这搞搞这种的加工、制造，知道吧？来料加工，搞这种东西，搞产业。
The 1990 s gave many opportunities to develop the automobile industry. What are you doing? Smuggling cars, reversing cars, but did not really step down to engage in manufacturing. Therefore, the policy given this time is very oriented. You’re doing this kind of processing and manufacturing here, you know? Processing with supplied materials, engaging in this kind of thing, engaging in industry.

之前也说洋浦港是优质的，深深水的两港，这没问题。所以海南当然也就提出要发展的一港三区，围绕着这个洋浦港的发展的发展起来，网上很多媒体都分析说洋浦港建成之后，新加坡就垮了。海南资源限制实际上是非常多的，想要赶超新加坡，短期内超越新加坡是异想天开，根本就不可能。双方根本就不在一个数量级，差距也太大了。
Before, I also said that Yangpu Port is a high-quality, deep-water port, which is no problem. Therefore, of course, Hainan also proposed one port and three districts to be developed. Around the development of Yangpu Port, many online media analyzed that Singapore collapsed after the completion of Yangpu Port. Hainan actually has a lot of resource constraints. It is whimsical and impossible to catch up with Singapore and surpass Singapore in the short term. The two sides are not in the same order of magnitude at all, and the gap is too wide.

首先地缘位置，新加坡是连通东亚、东南亚、南亚、印度、中东、欧洲、非洲各大洲的超级中转站。地理位置太好了，老天爷赏饭吃，那新加坡天然的就是国际的贸易大港。2024年的数据，53%的石油，30%的集装箱都是经过了新加坡的超级中转站。这个洋浦港根本不可能直接对标到新加坡，现在只能说从新加坡那儿分点流，海南现在根本抢不到新加坡的转口业务，新加坡是全球主要的贸易港，洋浦港实际上是一个区域中转站连接点方式。这个实际上我说过新加坡的主要问题，还是就是说大家都知道从这儿走，其实也要被雁过拔毛，对不对？但是他给你提供一种稳定性和安全感，这是最重要的。就是说政治政策上的稳定性，法律上的安全感。而大陆来讲，提供不了这东西，那现在洋浦港真正有竞争的主要是东盟到中国的航线。
First of all, Singapore is a super transit point connecting East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, India, the Middle East, Europe and Africa. The geographical location is so good that Singapore is naturally an international trade port. According to 2024 data, 53% of oil and 30% of containers passed through Singapore’s super transit station. It is impossible for this Yangpu Port to directly target Singapore. Now it can only be said that it is divided from Singapore. Hainan cannot grab Singapore’s re-export business at all. Singapore is the world’s major trading port. Yangpu Port is actually a regional transit station connection point. In fact, I have mentioned the main problem of Singapore, or that is to say, everyone knows that if you go from here, you will actually be plucked by wild geese, right? But he provides you with a sense of stability and security, which is the most important thing. That is to say, political policy stability and legal security. As far as the mainland is concerned, it cannot provide this. Now the real competition in Yangpu Port is mainly the route from ASEAN to China.

东盟印尼、马来西亚直接到洋浦港进行的深加工，进入重要的市场，主要就是抢的就是这块生意，还有就剩下都是一些的鸡毛蒜皮的小生意了。比如说什么保税燃油加入，什么维护船只，保养船只之类的小生意，那这些就反正搞点小生意，先把养港口养活了，先别死了，先把业务做起来了再说。至于挑战新加坡，那都早了，就别想那事儿了。2024年新加坡的集装箱吞吐量是4100万的标准箱，洋浦港现在是200到300，差了几十倍。
ASEAN, Indonesia and Malaysia directly go to Yangpu Port for deep processing and enter important markets. The main thing is to grab this business, and the rest are all trivial small businesses. For example, small businesses such as bonded fuel oil, ship maintenance and so on should start some small businesses anyway. First, feed the port, don’t die, and start the business first. As for challenging Singapore, it’s too early, so don’t think about it. In 2024, Singapore’s container throughput was 41 million TEUs, and Yangpu Port is now 200 to 300, a difference of dozens of times.

要发展完整的航运中心还需要什么？不仅仅是政策，还有就是说海事保险，你的保险理赔到不到到位，保险服务。航运的金融，你的金融服务、保险服务对不对？贸易金融、法律仲裁法律服务对吧？法律的可信度，以国际标准的海洋法为主干的国际贸易体系，建立海洋贸易体系需要很长时间，而且还需要相关的人才。现在海南当地的人才做这些事情可以搞定你自己本身就没有熟悉的这种国际相关业务的这些的公司人才都没有，都要从外外外外部的去去引进。
What else is needed to develop a complete shipping center? Not only the policy, but also the maritime insurance, your insurance claims are not in place, insurance services. Shipping finance, your financial services, insurance services, right? Trade finance, legal arbitration legal services, right? The credibility of the law, the international trading system based on the international standards law of the sea, and the establishment of a maritime trading system will take a long time, and it also requires relevant talents. At present, local talents in Hainan can do these things. You do not have any talents in these companies that are familiar with this kind of international related business. You have to import them from outside.

然后海南岛的地形地势还有很多问题，就是说它的这个降雨有独特规律。它四面的环海，亚热带的气候，雨量相对来说实际上是充沛的。但是由于地理位置和地形的限制，海南的不同区域存在不同程度的自然性缺水问题。什么意思呢？是这样。这个海南海南岛的它的中部和偏南的地方都是高山。五指山海拔很高，四面是平原。
Then there are still many problems with the topography of Hainan Island, that is to say, its rainfall has unique patterns. It is surrounded by the sea on all sides and has a subtropical climate with relatively abundant rainfall. However, due to the limitation of geographical location and terrain, different regions of Hainan have different degrees of natural water shortage. What does that mean? Here’s the thing. The central and southern parts of Hainan Island are high mountains. Wuzhishan is very high above sea level and is surrounded by plains.

那沿海一圈的平原导致一个问题是什么？最大的问题就是夏季暴雨季节的时候，雨很多对不对？但是水会迅速的从山区就流向海洋了，哗就进来了。进了海之后，就不是淡水了，就用不了了。对的，就进入海洋。那中间的路途很短，天然蓄积水的能力非常的弱，所以海南岛的雨水补给就是说淡水，淡水缺不缺海水，但是海水你也不能喝，对不对？所以海南岛的雨你要带雨水，你稍微净化一下不就可以喝了，对不对？
What is the problem caused by the coastal plain? The biggest problem is that during the summer rainstorm season, there is a lot of rain, right? But the water will quickly flow from the mountains to the ocean, and then it will come in. After entering the sea, it is not fresh water and cannot be used. Yes, just enter the ocean. The journey in the middle is very short, and the ability of natural water accumulation is very weak, so the rainwater supply in Hainan Island is fresh water. There is no shortage of fresh water and sea water, but you can’t drink sea water, right? So you need to bring rainwater to Hainan Island’s rain. You can drink it after a little purification, right?

那么海南岛的雨水补给主要来自海岛东南方向的太平洋。太平洋上形成台风的这种气旋，碰到中部山系的时候，过不去，翻不过去，水汽很难达到海南岛的西北方向。所以就会产生的焚风效应，使得整个西北地区在夏季高温的时候又干又热。所以海南岛西北方向上是非常的缺的这种淡水，就饮用水食用水缺缺淡水。那杨福好他就倒霉了，正好就在西北方向。所以资源性缺水一直是困扰洋浦经济发展的重大的瓶颈。
Then the rainwater supply of Hainan Island mainly comes from the Pacific Ocean southeast of the island. This kind of cyclone that forms a typhoon in the Pacific Ocean cannot pass or turn over when it hits the central mountain system, and it is difficult for water vapor to reach the northwest of Hainan Island. Therefore, the foehn effect will be produced, making the entire northwest region dry and hot in summer when it is hot. Therefore, Hainan Island is very short of fresh water in the northwest. Drinking water and drinking water are short of fresh water. Then Yang Fuhao will be unlucky, just in the northwest. Therefore, resource shortage has always been a major bottleneck in Yangpu’s economic development.

要想发展洋浦经济，必须首先要发展一个的水利工程，那水利工程实际上发展也发展了一些。那你看比较好的一个就是这个天鸟谈，还有一个松涛水库，对不对？天角谭松涛水库是之前的天鸟谈的时候，最近新搞的天要谈的新搞的水库的总投资人出资43亿人民币，每年供水的1点三五亿立方米。要发展大港口和大经济区其实是远远不够的，水太少了。那对标对比的这个松桃水库，就现在洋浦经济发展的主要还是靠着松桃水库、松涛水库蓄水量的33亿立方米，天水潭的1.94亿，中央的差几十倍。就不知道为什么新建的建了一这么点小的一个水利工程，这根本就不够。
If we want to develop Yangpu’s economy, we must first develop a water conservancy project, which has actually developed a little. Then you can see that the better one is this Tiangao Tan and Songtao Reservoir, right? The Tan Songtao Reservoir in Tianjiao was the previous Tianniao Talk. The total investor of the newly built reservoir recently invested 4.3 billion RMB and supplied 1.30 0.5 billion cubic meters of water every year. In fact, it is far from enough to develop large ports and large economic zones. There is too little water. The Songtao Reservoir, which is compared with the standard, is now mainly relying on the 3.3 billion cubic meters of water storage of Songtao Reservoir and Songtao Reservoir. The 0.194 billion of Tianshuitan is dozens of times lower than that of the central government. I don’t know why such a small water conservancy project has been built, which is not enough at all.

如果你想你想大力发展的话，因为海南其实它你要追求面的时候，它也挺大的，都快赶跟好像跟台湾差不多了，快赶上台湾了，对不对？其实比香港的新加坡的都要大大得多，对不对？但问题是你现在的淡水不够，所以他就这人员都没到位，所以你就要明白一点，反正就简单的来说，海南从80年代中央中央就给政策了，就给政策了，后来就中间又又给连续给两次政策，那到现在其实都已经40年的时间了。但是40年发展起来了吗？没有发展起来。他那这个里面实际上是有一些特殊原因的。
If you think you want to develop vigorously, because Hainan is actually quite big when you want to pursue it, it is almost like Taiwan, and it is almost catching up with Taiwan, right? In fact, it is much bigger than that of Hong Kong and Singapore, right? But the problem is that you don’t have enough fresh water now, so he doesn’t have this staff in place, so you have to understand one thing. Anyway, in a simple way, Hainan has given policies since the 1980 s, and then the central government has given policies twice in a row, it’s actually been 40 years now. But has it developed in 40 years? Not developed. He actually has some special reasons for this.

背后的原因就是海南的天然就受到很多资源的限制，海南还有自身的一些的文化资本的方面的问题。不是说每个地方中央给优惠政策就一定能发展。优惠政策必须要靠的这种的具活跃性的人，这个因素才能够使政策就落地。海南未来发展还需要全国各省各个省市能够帮助海南的发展，海南很有可能突破了这些瓶颈，但是武汉中央首先要考虑水的问题怎么解决。
The reason behind it is that Hainan is naturally limited by many resources, and Hainan also has some problems with its own cultural capital. It does not mean that every local central government will definitely develop preferential policies. Preferential policies must rely on such active people, and this factor can make the policy landing. The future development of Hainan still needs all provinces and cities across the country to help Hainan’s development. Hainan is likely to break through these bottlenecks, but the Wuhan Central Committee must first consider how to solve the water problem.

那谁的问题第一要解决，还有就是说中间这个山是不是愚公移山，对不对？反正再想想办法，反正就现在来看，就单单靠海南自身光给政策的话，恐怕是不行。那最后可能给前跟前两次中央给政策的结果是一样的。就中央这次必须得大力的要的想办法才行是吧？反正他说的我觉得还是有一定道理的。但是深圳也是改革开放几十年才发展起来，对不对？
Then whose problem should be solved first, and whether the mountain in the middle is Yugong moving mountains, right? Anyway, think about it again. Looking at it now, I’m afraid it won’t work if Hainan alone gives policies. In the end, it may give the same result as the previous two policies given by the central government. The central government has to do something about it this time, right? Anyway, I think what he said is reasonable. But Shenzhen only developed after decades of reform and opening up, right?

海南你说前面两次的政策给的也是一个其实不到位。我觉得前面两次咱们就不说前两次了，反正前两次我觉得也不到位，但是这一次给的真的是非常好的政策。当然了这个也要看就是说给了政策，然后中央还要再下下力量，愚公移山，然后精卫填海是吧？反正这种大的这种的水利工程恐怕要做要给整个它的岛，我觉得进行一次就更适宜人类生活的这么一个改造，要做一个大大改造才可以。好吧，这期先讲到这里，谢谢大家。
Hainan, you said that the previous two policies also gave one that was not in place. I think we won’t talk about the first two times. Anyway, I don’t think the first two times are in place, but this time it is really a very good policy. Of course, this also depends on the policy, and then the central government will make further efforts to remove the mountain and reclaim the sea, right? Anyway, I’m afraid this kind of large water conservancy project needs to be done for the whole island. I think it is more suitable for such a transformation of human life once, and it needs a great transformation. All right, let’s talk about this issue first, thank you.